22 Million People...

From the Washington Post's e-mail:

CBO says Senate GOP's bill would mean 22 million more uninsured Americans by 2026, a decrease from its estimate of the House plan

The health-care legislation that Majority Leader Mitch McConnell released last week would lower federal spending by $321 billion over the decade, the Congressional Budget Office projects, compared with $119 billion in the House version. The analysis released Monday by Congress's nonpartisan budget scorekeepers comes as McConnell and other Senate Republican leaders try to hurry a vote on their bill this week. But they are navigating an expanding minefield of resistance from their own party’s moderate and conservative wings. Several moderates have said they will decide whether they can support the Better Care Reconciliation Act based on how it will affect Americans who have gained coverage under the Affordable Care Act, while their conservative colleagues are focused on its impact on the federal deficit.

Ok, so what does this mean?

• Eventually, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Mike Lee are going to vote for this bill. It lowers federal spending on health care, which is what they really want. They don't give a damn about how many people get coverage, they don't think that's a government issue. Ron Johnson may be in the same boat as those three, but his state is a little more difficult to run in. My guess is he ends up a "yes" too, he has five and a half more years until he faces the public.
• All eyes are on Dean Heller, Susan Collins, Jeff Flake, Rob Portman, Cory Gardner, Shelley Moore Capito, and the small hand full of other Republicans who might behave moderately on this bill. Will they accept 22 million less insured people? Will they buy into conservative arguments that tax-credits will entice those people to buy insurance? That's the playing field at this point. I think Heller and Collins will end up at "no," but the others are all wild cards.